Archive for December 8th, 2007

I came across a documentary on youtube that investigates the banking system. I must say from the outset this is a very biased look at the banking system and in places it is factually incorrect. That being said it is still worth a look as it does provide some basic information about the banking system. The documentary is described as:

A highly informative and easy to understand film covers just about everything that isn’t taught in school regarding the corrupt banking system. It explains how these institutions get away with robbing the unsuspecting public by creating monetary policies designed to enslave society, while keeping the system in a perpetual state of rising debt.

I will only post the first three videos as I think the final two videos are so biased as to be of little use.

Corrupt Banking System - Cartels Robbing the Public

This video delves into a brief stylised history of the banking system, loans and Fiat currency.

Corrupt Banking System - How Money is Created

This video looks into the modern monetary system, the loan establishment process and a very simplified version of the multiplier effect.

Corrupt Banking System - Money is Debt

This video explores money as debt theory and highlights how interest payments exceed principal. The end of the video starts to look at monetary system reforms.

The final two videos in my opinion are far to biased to be of any real use. I have to say these videos provide a basic introduction to the monetary system and provide it in an easy to understand manner.

Have your say

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post’s poll.

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Today I am going to share with you two magazines that offer a wealth of articles and are delivered to you via email free every month. I have been a subscriber to these magazines since late 2005 and they have proved to be interesting reading.

The first of the magazines is Currency Trader. The Currency Trader magazine is delivered monthly after you subscribe (By providing your email address). The areas currency trader covers include:

CurrencyTrader

  • Analysis and news
  • Trading strategies
  • Systems and more

Articles in November 2007 currency trader include:

  • Japan: Politics, carry trades and the yen
  • Japanese Inflation and the yen
  • Trading FX pattern breakouts
  • Triennial BIS Forex survey

One of the extremely helpful features of the Currency Trader magazine is the global economic calendar and the trading events and conference section usually located at the rear of the magazine. 

The second magazine also produced by the same company is Futures & Options Trader. The subscription and delivery method for both magazines is the same. Futures & Options Trader covers analysis, news, trading strategies and systems however the articles relate directly to futures and options trading.

futuresOptionsArticles in the November 2007 Futures & Options Trader include:

  • Trading Bid-Ask volume data
  • System test: Reverse trade equity management
  • System Test: Ratio butterfly
  • Trading diagonal spreads
  • Collar Trades
  • Interview: Money Manager Klaus Schatz    

 

 

When a new issue of these magazines is ready to be downloaded you will be sent a link to download the current issue and the previous months issue. The download format for both of these magazines is PDF which makes it easy to download, store and archive. I have found that many of the articles presented in these magazines to be useful and I often refer back to them.

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kcalc In trading as in any other profession it is important to have the right tool for the right job. In our daily life as a trader we work with a large range of data that requires analysis. If you have done any kind of statistical or financial analysis I am sure you will be familiar with Microsoft Excel, however if you are just starting out Microsoft Excel may be less familiar to you.

Microsoft Excel is a powerful spreadsheet based application. The main window is comprised of rows and columns laid out in a grid format. This allows for easy entry and analysis of data. The version I use and would recommend is Microsoft Excel 2007. There are many new features in Excel 2007 these include: larger workbook capacity, completely overhauled user interface, simpler pivot table creation, easier third party data access and a stream lined workflow. The image below shows a screen shot of Excel 2007 in action. Google data

As you can see Microsoft Excel 2007 has a remarkably different user interface to earlier versions of Excel and if you are used to working with previous versions of Excel it will take you a little while to adapt to the new way of doing things.

Microsoft Excel allows you to create your own formulas and apply them to data. Excel also has many built in functions that allow for manipulation of data and the ability to record macros to streamline processes. Before I go through the interface of Excel 2007 there are two key things that you need to do.

  1. Install Add ins.
  2. Enable the developer toolbar.

Install Add-Ins

It is easiest to install add ins at the time you install Microsoft Excel, this can be done quite simply by selecting a custom install and then selecting the desired add-ins as shown below:

clip_image002

After the add-ins are installed they will then need to be enabled. This can be achieved by clicking on the Office button -> Excel Options -> Add-Ins -> Manage Add-Ins then click the Go button. This will open a window were you can select an Add-In to enable.

Enabling the Developer Toolbar

In order to record/run macros and write Visual Basic for spreadsheets you need to ensure the developer toolbar is enabled, which is not the case by default. To enable the developer toolbar simply click on the Office button -> Excel Options -> click checkbox “Show developer tab in the ribbon”.    

The ribbon and Office Button

In Excel 2007 the ribbon and the Office button are the most notable graphic changes in Excel 2007.  The office button is the circle in the top left hand corner of the screen and stores all non document tasks in the one spot, these include Open, Close, Print, Prepare Send and Exit Excel.

The Ribbon is a replacement for the menu bar it extends across the whole top area of the window. New users will quickly learn how to carry out tasks using the ribbon however users migrating from previous versions of Excel may find themselves frustrated looking around for commands. The ribbon is Broken up into a number of tabs these tabs are highlighted below:

Home Tab

Under this tab most of the editing and formatting is carried out.

RibbonHome

Insert Tab

Under this tab inserting different elements into your spreadsheets is carried out.

RibbonInsert

Page Layout Tab

Under this tab page layout elements can be modified to establish the look and feel of the spreadsheets.

RibbonPageLayOut

Formulas Tab

Under the formulas tab you can apply built-in or user defined formulas to your spreadsheet as well as controlling the naming of cells and data integrity.

RibbonFormulas

Data Tab

The data tab allows for the importing/exporting of data from multiple data sources as well as sorting and filtering and data validation.

RibbonData

Review Tab

The review tab allows for reviewing the spreadsheets spelling, translation and workbook sharing.

RibbonReview

View Tab

The view tab allows you to customize the way the document is viewed on screen.

RibbonView

Developer Tab

The developer Tab allows for Macro recording and code editing.

RibbonDeveloper

This has been a quick introduction to Excel 2007, in further posts I will be going through how to best use this application for trading purposes and covering some more advanced topics. 

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logoASX In yesterdays post I highlighted the free on-line courses that could be undertaken for individuals wanting to gain understanding of the futures and options market. The focus today will be on the equity market, in particular the Australia equity market. I know that the majority of my readers are from the US however I think that it is important to expand your horizons as there are many investment opportunities outside the US.

 

The ASX much like the CME has an excellent investor education section. The first place to start would be the Getting Started in Shares(PDF) publication, this will give you a very brief introduction to share trading and the ASX. There are also a series of audio visual presentations that can be viewed while you are online. These audio visual presentations include:

  • What is the share market?
  • What is a stock broker?
  • An introduction to trading language.
  • An introduction to Listed Managed Investments (LMI’s).
  • An introduction to interest rate securities.

In addition to these audio visual presentations there are several free online courses that can be undertaken. In order to sign up for these courses you need to register with MyASX which is also free. The courses are well structured and easy to follow. The layout of the course screen is shown below:

CourseScreen

The courses contain interactive content and tests and quizzes to reinforce knowledge. The courses are rated beginner. intermediate or advanced. The courses that relate to share trading are:

  • Getting started in shares - Beginner
  • Starting in the sharemarket - Beginner
  • Tracking your sharemarket investment - Beginner
  • Analysing and selecting shares - Intermediate
  • Developing an investment portfolio - Intermediate

As well as the sharemarket courses also cover options, warrants, interest rate securities and contracts for difference(CFD’s).

  • Getting started in options - Beginner
  • Option trading strategies - Intermediate
  • Getting started in warrants and instalment warrants - Beginner
  • Getting started in interest rate securities - Beginner
  • ASX CFD Introduction - Intermediate

These courses form an excellent foundation for understanding the Australian sharemarket. With such a strong growing resource sector I think that the Australian share market is worth investigating for the astute investor.    

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There are hundreds of websites of varying credibility offering to provide you training courses and material. These course can cost thousands of dollars and in most cases provide little more information then can be obtained from well written book. For the futures or options trader in training the first stop in the quest for knowledge should be the education section of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. You can download a free 132 page Introduction to Futures and Options Manual. The following are free online courses you can undertake:CME Futures  a Introductory GuideTopics 

  • The mechanics of futures trading
  • Who trades futures and why : hedgers and speculators
  • Forecasting prices
  • Electronic trading and the trading environment

For the Foreign currency or Forex trader there are two courses offered by the CME. The first being the:Dynamics of Foreign ExchangeTopics 

  • History and concepts of FX
  • Trading CME FX futures and options
  • Currency pricing - spot, futures and cross-rates
  • How to use CME E-quivalents®
  • Hedging with FX
  • Concepts of fundamental and technical analysis in FX markets
  • Basic FX trading strategies

After Completing this course you can then move on to:Advanced Strategies for Foreign Exchange TradersTopics  

  • FX market concepts
  • Trading strategies using futures and options
  • Spreading strategies
  • Futures trading strategies with cross-rates
  • Advanced hedging strategies
  • 20 futures strategies examined

All of the CME courses are very well structured and offer interactive exercises, email contact with instructors, online quizees and ability to earn a certificate of achievement. It should be noted that each one of these courses has a time limit of 90 days to complete.

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There are blogs on nearly every single topic you can imagine and trading is no exception. Today I will share with you blogs I enjoy reading and blogs that will make you a better trader. If you have been living under a rock for the past 5 years a blog is:

“A website where entries are written in chronological order and commonly displayed in reverse chronological order. “Blog” can also be used as a verb, meaning to maintain or add content to a blog.” Source wikipedia 

Blogs are growing at a phenomenal rate as they allow individuals to have a powerful voice. The growth of blogs is highlighted in the chart below:

 Blog Data

Blogs are also a source of income for a growing number of individuals. One notable blogger is John Chow whose income for October 2007 from his blog alone was $23,448.59.

Number One

Steve Pavlina runs a personal development blog that is full of insight and will help you become more productive and grow as a person. The blog is not regularly updated, however there are enough resources to keep you busy for a long time.

Key Posts

Number Two

Zen habbits covers a wide range of topics including eliminating debt, achieving goals, being organized, productivity, eliminating debt and saving.

Key Posts

Number Three

Michael Covel is the author of Trend Following: How Great Traders Make Millions in Up or Down Markets and The Complete TurtleTrader: The Legend, the Lessons, the Results. His blog contains diverse range of quality trading information. 

Key Posts

Number Four

The money blogs is an aggregation of a large number of different blogs. The topics posted on vary widely from real estate, stock investing, personal finance and trading.

Key Posts

Number Five

I can’t say too much about this blog other then it has some very interesting articles. It can be a bit hard to navigate but definitely worth a read.

Key Posts

Number Six

Trader’s narrative is concentrated mainly on timing, sentiment and new ways of analysing markets. It is jam packed full of analysis and also sells tshirts with the tagline “Traders do it for money”.

Key Posts

Number Seven

An inspiring blog by Jon who suffers from the degenerative Spinal Muscular Atrophy. This has not stopped Jon from living life to the fullest his sit is called onmoneymaking and provides tips on how to make more money.

Key Posts

Number eight

Ugly chart is a blog that contains general trade information the author trade for a living. He trades with a Prop Firm.

Key Posts

Number Nine

Foot Noted is a site that takes a closer look at things companies attempt to bury in their routine SEC filings.

Key Posts

Number Ten

Vitaliy’s Contrian Edge is a blog maintained by a CFA and author of Active value investing and contains interesting thoughts views and analysis.

Key Posts

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It is official yours truly is the South Australian winner of the ASX share market game. It has been all quiet on my website for a while as I have been busy with programming and other non-trading related tasks. I am sure everyone can relate to life getting in the way of all the best-laid plans. In case you are unaware with what the ASX share market game is, you might like to read my introduction to the ASX share market game.

How did I come first in South Australia in the ASX share market game?

I know you are all wondering how I came to be in first position so without any further ado I will tell you. It was simply a matter of buying shares holding them until they increased in value and then reducing my holdings via pending orders. Due to rules of the game, the pool of shares I could choose from was only 100 companies and could not short sell. As I do with any problem I face I try to break it down into its component form.

Components involved

After initial brainstorming, I came up with some very broad components that would need to be implemented in my strategy. These components are interrelated below is a simplified view of the various components that need to be considered:

basicProblem

Given this information, the best strategy I could use would be to select stocks that were highly correlated and stay out of any stocks that had exposure to the subprime. I did choose one banking sector stock as it had a quality loan book and no US market assets. My portfolio was heavily weighted to the resource sector with exposure to Gold, Zinc, Copper, Aluminium, Bauxite, Uranium and AUD/USD spot prices. Below is a chart showing my performance throughout the trading period. You can also see where I scaled back my resource market holdings.

graphEquity

As you can see in the final two weeks if I did not alter my strategy, my portfolio would be worth $3000 less and I would not have been in first place.

Game Statistics

National Performance summary

My Portfolio value $63,050.30
Number of ranked Players 15541
My Ranking 13
Average Player Portfolio Value $52,127.44
Percent of players in profit 75.54%

Conclusion

Although it was very humbling that I came first in the state and 13th in the country, the strategy that I used was highly risky and in the real world, I would not undertake such risk. In addition, I am reminded of a Ron Chernow quote:

“As a bull market continues, almost anything you buy goes up. It makes you feel that investing in stocks is a very easy and safe and that you’re a financial genius.”

At the end of the day winning the state division doesn’t mean a hell of a lot, my bank account is $1000 dollars better off, I don’t suddenly now consider myself to be an expert trader. I will continue myself education process and I believe entering these simulated trading games has helped my understanding of the markets.

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For those of you wanting a bit more information on Turtle trading I have posted a three-part speech. Delivered by Michael Covel in Tokyo in June 2007 discussing Richard Dennis and the Turtle trading experiment. I hope to purchase his new book shortly and will post a review here about it. He makes a very interesting point in response to a question about the culture of investment banks.

Part One Turtle Trader Tokyo Speech

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Part Two Turtle Trader Tokyo Speech

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Part Three Turtle Trader Tokyo Speech

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Way of the turtle begins with an explanation of the initial Turtle Trading experiment. This experiment came about after a dispute between Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt on the issue of weather great traders were born or made. Dennis had the view that an individual could be taught to be great trader while Eckhardt thought great traders required genetics and aptitude. In order to settle the matter ads were taken out in the Wall Street Journal, New York Times and Barron’s. The ads were for the position of trading apprentices and after an initial training period the trainee would be given an account to trade. Out of a thousand applicants 13 were selected, these trainees were known as the Turtles.

Curtis M. Faith, the youngest member of the original Turtle group, wrote way of the Turtle. It contains 278 pages not including the index forward and preface. The well-respected trading coach Van K. Tharp authored the preface and stated, “[Way of the Turtle] is one of the five best trading books ever written, and I will recommend that all my clients become familiar with its contents”.

Way of the Turtle Contents

  • Chapter One – Risk Junkies
  • Chapter Two – Taming the Turtle Mind
  • Issues of psychology and the traders mind are talked about
  • Chapter Three – The First $2 Million is the Toughest
  • Chapter Four – Think Like a Turtle
  • Chapter Five – Trading with an Edge
  • Chapter Six - Falling of the Edge
  • Chapter Seven – By what Measure?
  • Chapter Eight – Risk and Money Management
  • Chapter Nine – Turtle-Style Building Blocks
  • Chapter Ten – Turtle-Style Trading: Step-by-Step
  • Chapter Eleven – Lies, Damn Lies, and Backtests
  • Chapter Twelve - On Solid Ground
  • Chapter Thirteen – Bullet-proof Systems
  • Chapter Fourteen – Mastering Your Demons
  • Bonus Chapter – Original Turtle Trading Rules

The book takes a non-technical approach to explain key trading issues, by that I mean concepts are presented descriptively rather than quantitatively. This will definitely appeal to readers who do not have a technical background and makes for much easier reading.

The first chapter delves into the different market participants by focussing on the different trading styles of the hedger, scalper and speculator. Curtis also talks about the trading pits of Chicago and their death. This is a very brief coverage and as is most of the book geared towards futures traders. Psychology of trading and different market states are briefly touched upon, before looking at some simple technical indicators. .

Later chapters go through the risk of ruin, expectation, money management and gaining an edge for your trading. Throughout these chapters, indicators and statistical measures are introduced that are helpful in evaluating system performance. The money management section was very limited in scope, however this was deliberate Curtis states “Others have devised complex formulas and written entire books about money management. It shouldn’t be that complicated”.

There are six trading systems compared and contrasted in the book they are:

  1. ATR Channel Breakout
  2. Bollinger Breakout
  3. Donchian Trend
  4. Donchian Trend with time exit
  5. Dual Moving Average
  6. Triple Moving Average

Lies, damn lies and backtests, was by far one of the books stand out chapters and is something anyone considering buying a trading system or a black box system should read before making a decision. The bonus chapter rounds out the book by detailing the original turtle trading rules; this material has been around on the internet for a while.

Way of the Turtle is a must read trading book for the new trader it is full of wisdom and insight. The intermediate trader will derive less value from this book as a fair portion of the book is devoted to some of the basic trading concepts. That being said the pragmatic and structured approach in which ideas are presented allows for even the most advanced trader reading this book to gain knowledge without being bored. This book covers a lot of key areas in the development and testing of a trading system and provides an insider’s view of the Turtle trading experiment. I enjoyed the candour and openness of Curtis’s epilogue and the fact that he can readily admit his failures and talks about the issue of learning requiring failure. I would highly recommend this book to anyone considering a career as a trader.

 

One of my favourite quotes on the subject of failure:

“I’ve missed more than 9000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. 26 times, I’ve been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.” Michael Jordan

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image Today we will be putting Windows Vista Business Edition to the trading platform  test. The programs that we will be testing under Windows Vista Business Edition today are Global Trading System Professional by FX Solutions and TeleTrader Professional or FX AccuCharts.

Installation

These two programs are packaged separately therefore you will have to install them separately. It is not important which program is installed first.I have chosen to install FX AccuCharts first.

FX AccuCharts Install

The FX AccuCharts installation is very straightforward, simply choose an install location, agree to the licence, choose a username and finally choose a complete or custom install (I have gone for complete). The time it takes to install FX AccuCharts is significantly longer then most other platforms. When installation is completed it gives you the option to launch both the application and manual. After installation an icon is placed on the desktop.

Global Trading System Professional Install

The Global Trading System Professional (GTS pro) installation is very straightforward, it was a little different to other installers as it is a self-extracting archive; therefore, the setup program is unzipped before the install can begin. In the setup, an install location is chosen and then GTS Pro is installed and an Icon is placed on the Desktop.

FX AccuCharts

On first launch of FX AccuCharts you will notice the very clean interface utilizing Windows Vista’s graphical improvements.  There are numerous features in FX AccuCharts, however in essence it is really an offline charting and technical analysis application that uses a proprietary data feed. The main fetures include:

  • 150 advanced technical indicators and oscillators.
  • Ability to modify and create custom indicators using TeleTrader langauge.
  • Advanced drawing tools which include: line drawing tool, shape drawing tool, Fibonacci fan drawing tool, Fibonacci retracements drawing tool, Fibonacci Arc drawing tool, Speed resistance drawing tool, Gann fan drawing tool, Andrews Pitchfork drawing tool and cycle line drawing tool.
  • An audible alert system for when price alerts are hit.    

Overall FX AccuCharts is an average analysis tool and works very well under Windows Vista Business Edition. FX AccuCharts is fast responsive and provides a large and varied number of tools to help in trading. I would not recommend this program for real time analysis however it is good tool. An image of FX AccuCharts shown below.

FX AccuCharts MainWindow

Global Trading System Professional

GTS Pro also makes use of Windows Vista look and feel. The platform consist of one of the best laid out main window interfaces that I have seen on any trading platform. It is clear to see that this platform has been designed with usability in mind.

GTS PRO Layout

The default main window view is shown above and consists of:

  • The top toolbar shows Accounts, Balance, MTM P/L in dollar terms, Equity, Used Margin and Usable Margin.
  • The AUD/USD order selection window shows live Bid/Ask prices and High/Low prices for respective currencies.
  • Streaming tick chart for desired currency.
  • Account information.
  • Currency pair summary.
  • Pending Orders.
  • Open Trades

Another truly innovative feature of GTS Pro is the Connection Health dialog box, which can be opened via the Help menu. The connection health dialog box displays the the number of connections, last connection time, average connection time, maximum connection time and the number of timeouts.

image 

Another feature is the ability to set a price alert, you can set the alert on the Bid or Ask side and is a one click process from the main window. To place an alert you simply select your currency, choose the price for Bid or Ask and finally choose a sound file to play when the price reaches the target is hit.

image 

GTS Pro also contains a feature that enables one click trading, which some users will welcome and others may view with caution. I fall into the caution camp, I have trialled this feature and would not recommend it to anyone trading a live account one wrong click and you can lose a lot of money in a short time, even if you close out the trade before the price moves you are still out the spread. If you choose to enable this feature you are presented with a lengthy legal disclaimer as shown below:

One Click Trade Setup 

GTS Pro has several more notable features which include a Forex calculator, detailed custom reports, research tools, news tools, trading history, account rule manager, always on top ticker and more. You can click the image below to see GTS in dual screen mode highlighting these features.

GTSPlatform 

Bottom Line

Both FX AccuCharts and GTS Pro run perfectly under Windows Vista Business Edition. As a trading platform GTS Pro is excellent it contains several innovative features and has the best user interface I have seen in a trading platform and is highly usable, however I am unsure of FX Solutions clearing methods and I would not trade with any broker that was not an ECN. FX AccuCharts has a wide range of quality drawing tools which are it’s stand out features. Due to the fact charting does not include live data makes FX AccuChart of very limited practical use. GTS Professional is a good platform, however I would only recommend it for demo trading.

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