Archive for December 16th, 2007

Success requires seeing client as a resource
Baltimore Sun - If you want your small business to succeed, selling is an essential ingredient. The basic information on your buyers’ habits is essential. When sales are strong, don’t become overconfident. This might be the perfect time to step things up. Your

Small space, massive savings for buyers at Nazareth Place in San Mateo
San Francisco Gate - Small Business Center : A new resource for small businesses. Get expert advice, forms and more. SFGate Technology : It’s a high-tech world - - we just plug you into it Median home prices moved up to $870,000 in San Mateo County in October, but

Business ban stunts growth
Maui News - A major opportunity for economic growth on Maui lies in that most American of all pursuits – individual entrepreneurship. Starting a small business is always tough but it is impossible if there is nowhere to operate. With high rents and little in

Greenspan: Homeowners need cash
Stockhouse Canada - Homeowners need cash boost, Greenspan says - Dec. 16, 2007 The World wide web home of: Entire Site Money Business 2.0 Small Business * AnyLink CSS Menu script- Dynamic Drive DHTML code library (www.dynamicdrive.com) * This notice MUST stay intact for legal

Air France proposes share swap for Alitalia: reports
Reuters - Reuters is the world’s largest international multimedia news bureau, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information

Office suites that cost zilch
Economic Times - A look at prices of different versions of Ms Office 2007 reveals that the professional suit comes at about Rs 16,900, while the one for small business is about Rs 1,450. A basic MS Office 2007 comes at Rs 10,400 while the students version if about Rs

Are you spending less on Christmas presents?
New Zealand Herald - This is great is you sell whiteware, automobiles or televisons, but if you’re a small business, you really feel the pinch, as we’re. Thanks Mr Cullen, with the Government’s ‘Made in New Zealand’ BS - sorry ‘initiative’. It is no alternative for actually

Sounding the alarm
Baltimore Sun - Don’t shove stuff in a small closet area if that is where the furnace and flue pipe are. • A rule of thumb is this: If Popular stories: Business News

Small Business: Independent retailers must use creativity
Seattle Post Intelligencer - NEW YORK — At Jeff Cassels’ jewelry store, falling real estate values and rising gold prices are more than news headlines — they are contributors to an uncertain holiday season. At Joanie McDonald’s clothing store, however, a weakening dollar is

Time to begin thinking about your income tax
Fort Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel - If you own a small business and have a question about your tax situation, Thomas P. Ochsenschlager, vice president of taxation for the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants, will host the Small Business Administration’s December Web chat

Faster allows set for charities
Baltimore Sun - and Jeanette Weinberg Foundation, one of the country’s biggest private foundations, will announce the new Maryland Small Popular stories: Business News

Small business tax seminar
San Francisco Gate - The U.S. Small Business Administration will host a live Web seminar on Dec. 20 on year-end tax savings for small businesses with Thomas Ochsenschlager, a tax expert with the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants. You can join the session

New loan program puts couple in business
Star-Gazette - Lance and Polly Kilmer bought Hi Bar on South Main Street in Elmira with the help of the Patriot Express program run through by the Small Business Administration. The Small Business Administration had veterans like 28-year-old Lance Kilmer in mind

Marketers hit the picket lines
CNN Money - (FORTUNE Small Business) NEW YORK — As a snowstorm swept New York City yesterday, FSB joined members of the Writer’s Guild of America East (WGAE) gathered to protest in Times Square, where savvy entrepreneurs took advantage of the striking writers

Premier says WA has to have 7-day shopping
News.com.au - The Premier’s plan will put Labor on a collision course with small-business operators and independent supermarkets who ran a successful “no” campaign at the last election - with the help of Mr Carpenter’s nemesis, Brian Burke, who masterminded the

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A piece in the New York Times reports on the main competitive advantage of small stores: They’re small. According to the article, “Small retailers around the country are using a host of marketing tactics, from the usual extra emphasis on customer service to putting out free cider and cookies. But their most important step may be that they’re trying to make the most of their inherent advantages over larger competitors.”

A common criticism of low-cost behemoths like Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) is that they knock out mom-and-pop competitors. This complaint certainly isn’t without merit, but small stores often can survive Wal-Mart if they can find a way to make themselves more attractive than big boxes — in spite of their higher prices.

The stores mentioned in the Times piece are doing just that creativity and entrepreneurship. And everyone wins: Wal-Mart forces these stores to provide better customer service. In spite of all the bad press about Wal-Mart’s bad service, the reality is that it actually improves customer service at its competitors, who have to find a way to compete other than price.

So if you’re one of the anti-Wal Mart brigade who does your holiday shopping at small local businesses, think of it this way: The fine service you enjoy may actually be part of the Wal-Mart effect.

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Circuit City (CC) has now regressed into the guy in high school that dumps his girlfriend only to beg her to come back after he realizes what a massive mistake he made. Circuit City Spokesman Bill Cimino stated last week that Circuit City invited former U.S. workers to apply for jobs, a practice he stated was […]

Circuit City (CC) has now regressed into the guy in high school that dumps his girlfriend only to beg her to come back after he realizes what a massive mistake he made.

Circuit City Spokesman Bill Cimino said last week that Circuit City invited former U.S. workers to apply for jobs, a practice he stated wasn’t uncommon in retail, given the typically high turnover. It should be noted here that many of these folks are that same ones that in March, Circuit City let go. More than 3,000 workers were fired and replaced them with lower-paid staff. Cimino added that Circuit City would likely invite more ex-staffers to return next year.

“In a lot of cases, we’ve completely changed how our stores operate; the roles of our associates within the stores,” Cimino told Reuters. “We’ve got a superior career path now for associates.” By career path do you mean you’ll not fired them unexpectedly?

Now, what does Circuit City really hope to accomplish? The good one they let go because the were “too expensive” will already have jobs and those who are still unemployed 6 months after they were let go, do they really want them back? The timing of this is terrible too. They now have themselves competing with the holiday hiring spree that happens every years in retailing.

This is just another in a long line of management failures that has shares snuggled comfortably at 4 year lows. There has been a lot of speak in the blogsphere about shares being a bargain and by most mathematical metrics, they are. Big problem though. In order for those metrics to translate into a retail turnaround and thus have shareholders reap the benefits of that value, management needs to do its job.

Circuit City could carve itself out a niche among the monsters out there like Best Buy (BBY) and Wal-Mart (WMT) much like Julian Day at RadioShack (RSH) has done. It would need to be done on service and a more professional shopping experience. Getting rid of the best folks you’ve to do that based on their pay scale was just inexplicably short-sighted.

If current management has shown anything, they are just not up to the job and until new management is there, Circuit City will continue to be a value-trap for investors that if it is not bought out soon (next 8 months), will most likely be driven into bankruptcy a sentiment I first expressed in June.

On a side note, why haven’t any of these electronics retailers with “help desks” inside like City’s “Firedog” or Ideal Buy’s “Geek Squad” jumped at the opportunity to associate somehow with the hit show “Chuck”? It is a natural association.

For more visit Source:www.straightstocks.com

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I mentioned in an entry in mid October how Indian stocks seemed to be getting very tiny attention I’m always amazed to see how the ratio of Chinese to Indian financial stories is in a ratio of 20:1 - when you’ve 2 economies of similar scope, size, and strength - yet one seems to […]

I mentioned in an entry in mid October how Indian stocks seemed to be getting very tiny attention

I am always amazed to see how the ratio of Chinese to Indian financial stories is in a ratio of 20:1 - when you’ve 2 economies of similar scope, size, and strength - yet one seems to get all the attention. Perhaps it is due in part to the fact that there are very few ways of directly investing in India via ADRs where there are several more Chinese avenues.

With all the attention on Chinese small cap stocks racing hundreds of % for no good reason, and the first trillion dollar company, PetroChina (PTR) [Petrochina the 1 Trillion Dollar Company? Is *this* the Top]. it just seemed way too frothy, so I decided to focus more on India instead of China [Buying a Bucket of India]

I decided to look back since that focus on India vs China (October 15/16) and see how investments in the 2 countries have compared since my Indian stocks have been rip roaring of late. I’m using iShares Xinhau China 25 (FXI) as the proxy for China since this is the easiest way for US investors to buy an ‘index’, and using the India Fund (IFN) which is what I use as my index for India.

ifnffxi.gif

It is hard to read the chart from afar (click on it to enlarge), but the 2 month chart above starts on October 11th through yesterday’s close. Using October 16th as a begin point, India Fund [tan line] has returned +24% and iShares Xinhau China 25 [black line] -6%, so a variance of +30%. Every so often you nail these….

(as an aside iPath MSCI India (INP) has done even better than IFN - returning 39% since October 16th, but part of that could be due to some structural issues the instrument)

At this point I think the move here in the Indian stocks are a bit overextended, and if not for the fact Chinese big caps are STILL extremely highly valued compared to similar peers in US, I’d be getting more constructive on China. (reversing the call in mid October) Well that and the fact Shanghai is in a bubble and food inflation is roaring there.

Pork prices surged 56 percent in November from a year earlier, driven by a shortage of pigs. Food makes up a third of the consumer price index and rising costs pose a threat to social stability, illustrated by a stampede last month at a cooking-oil sale that killed three people in the central city of Chongqing. Overall, food climbed 18.2 percent.

However this shows clearly that not all ‘emerging markets’ move together… while both countries were hit by the US correction in November, the Chinese index has made a begrudging recovery whereas the Indian stocks have made a slingshot bounce.

Long India Fund in fund; no personal position

For more visit Source:www.straightstocks.com

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On Tuesday afternoon, I was out Christmas shopping and I heard Jeff Macke (spelling?) make a comment to the effect he sold a lot of stock as a result of the first bit of Fed news. Gartman on Wednesday stated the he thinks the rest of the year will be down and that he has lost […]

On Tuesday afternoon, I was out Christmas shopping and I heard Jeff Macke (spelling?) make a comment to the effect he sold a lot of stock as a result of the first bit of Fed news.

Gartman on Wednesday stated the he thinks the rest of the year will be down and that he has lost all faith in Bernanke and thinks he should go.

I’ve been clear for many months that I thought that this market cycle was close to ending and that in fact a bear market has started.

My thought of course should have no bearing on you and your portfolio. The context here’s if you think a bear market or big decline is coming…

I’ve outlined the general tact I’ve taken, and why, in past posts. As a matter or normal cyclicality, volatility increases at the end. For anyone interested in trying to avoid some portion of down a lot it makes sense to reduce volatility a little if the chance of it being late cycle is high.

In looking at the chart there are of course different conclusions that can be drawn. I believe the green line will turn out to be the most important but whether that’s true or not I don’t believe anything changed this week with the Fed news. Bear markets turn slowly, as I’ve been saying, they do not start with one news item like the Fed did X. The Fed could make things worse however.

Financials have been in trouble for months now and as I have been saying I anticipate more to come. A stock market is very unlikely to do well without its largest sector. This entire event from the first yield curve inversion through to the present day has been very textbook. Here I’m speaking about the effect of the crisis as opposed to the details that created the crisis.

The news of the week is simply a part of the equation that either the Fed is behind the curve or there’s no real action to solve this other than time. We know that if nothing else time will solve it, we don’t know how much time (at least I don’t) it will take.

The path I chose (and wrote about) was simple and relied on this time not being different. Inverted yield curve equals trouble for financials and probably for the rest of the market. Anticipating trouble meant trying to avoid the full impact of a normal decline.

Looking ahead there is no way to know (we may look back and point to a certain date) whether in fact a bear market has started or whether any action taken to cushion the blow will work if it is a bear but bear markets do come along each now and then and the way they begin is pretty similar to what is going on now. I may be adding 1+1 and getting eleven or I may be right but I can build a good case personally that says some defense here makes sense. So far this path has worked very well and we’ll see about the future.

For more visit Source:www.straightstocks.com

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For some reason I just am not in the 50 point cut camp like most folks are. As a matter of fact, as I speculated last week, I’m not even sure I think a 25 point cut will happen. Why? Today’s reports show the the current economic situation is not nearly as dire as people […]

For some reason I just am not in the 50 point cut camp like most folks are. As a matter of fact, as I speculated last week, I am not even sure I think a 25 point cut will happen.

Why? Today’s reports show the the current economic situation isn’t almost as dire as people think.

Productivity in the nonfarm business sector increased at a 6.3% annual rate in Q3 the government stated in its second estimate of productivity. A month ago, the government said productivity rose 4.9% annualized.

Unit labor costs, a key gauge of inflationary pressures from wages, were revised much lower, showing a 2% annual decline in the third quarter compared with a 0.2% drop estimated a month ago.

Unit labor costs in the second quarter were also revised much lower, from a 2.2% gain to a 1.1% decline, reflecting more up-to-date compensation information. The revised data show inflationary pressures from tight labor markets are much milder than previously believed.

Now this does give the Fed room to move rates lower and relieves the worry that inflation might spike. But, with the economy going at a healthy pace, are rate cut really even necessary?

Think about this day jobs report.

Private payrolls grew by 189,000 in November following a revised 119,000 gain in October an ADP report said this day. The increase was well above expectations for job growth of only 60,000 in November.

Employed workers are spending workers. Now, much of the rate cut speak has been focused around mortgages. The simple explanation was that millions of resets of adjustable rate mortgages were coming and high rates woulds cause high resets and million of foreclosures. The argument was that lower rates would help mitigate that. Word this day is that Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson is working on a deal to freeze resets for 5 years. If that happens, then we now know the scope of the problem out for the next 5 years. We have the ability to assume based n historical data what will happen in the mortgage markets with some degree of accuracy.

If we know the scope of the problem, the impetus to lower rates to stave off a catastrophe is now gone. With that being gone, we now go back to the old fashioned reason for rate cuts, growth vs inflation. Right now, both seem to be just fine and if they’re just fine, is there really a reason to tinker with rates?

While I do not feel a cut is necessary, with the market 100% sure a 25 point cut is coming, I would assume Bernanke gives it to them if for no other reason that to avoid an end of years sell-off.

Should he give them 50, the only thing that would justify it would be an accompanying statement saying the Fed is essentially “done” unless things “dramatically deteriorate”. Either way, Tuesday will be one hell of a day

For more visit Source:www.straightstocks.com

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It is official yours truly is the South Australian winner of the ASX share market game. It has been all quiet on my website for a while as I have been busy with programming and other non-trading related tasks. I’m sure everyone can relate to life getting in the way of all the best-laid […]

It is official yours truly is the South Australian winner of the ASX share market game. It has been all quiet on my website for a while as I have been busy with programming and other non-trading related tasks. I’m sure everyone can relate to life getting in the way of all the best-laid plans. In case you’re unaware with what the ASX share market game is, you might like to read my introduction to the ASX share market game.

How did I come first in South Australia in the ASX share market game?

I know you are all wondering how I came to be in first position so without any further ado I will tell you. It was simply a matter of buying shares holding them until they increased in value and then reducing my holdings via pending orders. Due to rules of the game, the pool of shares I could choose from was only 100 companies and could not short sell. As I do with any problem I face I try to break it down into its component form.

Components involved

After initial brainstorming, I came up with some very broad components that would need to be implemented in my strategy. These components are interrelated below is a simplified view of the various components that need to be considered:

basicProblem

Given this information, the ideal strategy I could use would be to select stocks that were highly correlated and stay out of any stocks that had exposure to the subprime. I did select one banking sector stock as it had a quality loan book and no US market assets. My portfolio was heavily weighted to the resource sector with exposure to Gold, Zinc, Copper, Aluminium, Bauxite, Uranium and AUD/USD spot prices. Below is a chart showing my performance throughout the trading period. You can also see where I scaled back my resource market holdings.

graphEquity

As you can see in the final two weeks if I didn’t modify my strategy, my portfolio would be worth $3000 less and I wouldn’t have been in first place.

Game Statistics

National Performance summary

My Portfolio value $63,050.30
Number of ranked Players 15541
My Ranking 13
Average Player Portfolio Value $52,127.44
Percent of players in profit 75.54%

Conclusion

Although it was very humbling that I came first in the say and 13th in the country, the strategy that I used was highly risky and in the real world, I would not undertake such risk. In addition, I am reminded of a Ron Chernow quote:

“As a bull market continues, almost anything you purchase goes up. It makes you feel that investing in stocks is a very easy and safe and that you’re a financial genius.”

At the end of the day winning the say division doesn’t mean a hell of a lot, my bank account is $1000 dollars better off, I don’t suddenly now consider myself to be an expert trader. I will continue myself education process and I believe entering these simulated trading games has helped my understanding of the markets.

For more visit Source:traineetrader.com

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